🌾 A November 2025 study modeled Indus river flow using lake sediments, cave deposits, and simulations. Four prolonged dry intervals over 85 years each were identified, the worst lasting ~164 years. Near Kot Diji and Ganweriwala, flows dropped ~12%. The worst drought came after urban collapse.
November 2025 study models generational droughts behind Harappan collapse
Key facts
- A study published in November 2025 combined lake sediments, cave deposits, and computer simulations to model river flow at 17 locations in the Indus region.
- The reconstruction identified four prolonged dry intervals, each lasting more than 85 years; the most severe lasted about 164 years.
- Near Kot Diji and Ganweriwala, modeled river flows were approximately 12% below the earlier period.
- Estimated flow losses were smaller in Saurashtra than at the hardest-hit Indus locations, especially during the earlier dry intervals.
- The most severe drought occurred after the main urban phase had already ended, suggesting it prolonged the crisis rather than initiating it.
- The invasion hypothesis for Harappan collapse is unsupported by current evidence.
Sources
(PDF) River drought forcing of the Harappan metamorphosisresearchgate.net
The first drought was an abrupt 300-year long winter rainfall drought between 4.26 and 3.97 kyr BP, associated with the 4.2 kyr event, propagated from the ...
Study links repeated centuries-long droughts to decline of ...aa.com.tr
They found four severe droughts, each lasting more than 85 years, that gradually reduced rainfall, dried up rivers and parched soils.
River drought forcing of the Harappan metamorphosisnature.com
by H Solanki · 2025 · Cited by 10 — Sites such as Kot Diji (STI02) and Ganweriwala (STI04) experienced a ~12% reduction in riverflow, suggesting water scarcity in the Indus River ...
Centuries of repeated droughts linked to the Indus Valley ...nature.com
Centuries of repeated droughts linked to the Indus Valley Civilisation's decline Communities adapted by shifting crops and migrating eastward, ...
A Newly Discovered Kot Diji Phase Site in Northern Punjabacademia.edu
This paper deals with the discovery of a Kot Diji phase site in the upper Indus Valley, Northern Punjab, at Mohra in District Rawalpindi.
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